AllSky7 — Perseid vs. Sporadic Breakdown (2026)
Community network · August 7–17, 2026 · automated preliminary results
⚠️ These are automated, pre-review preliminary solutions, generated before manual QA (re-reduction, calibration verification, coordinate fixes). Obvious failed solves have been removed. Treat the tagged counts as a floor and the adjusted figures as a near upper bound.
Nightly breakdown
| Date | PER | Near Rad* | Near Vel* | PER Adj. | SPO | Minor | Total | PER % | Adj. % | SPO % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 80 | 30 | 6 | 116 | 180 | 16 | 312 | 25.6% | 37.2% | 57.7% |
| 2026-08-08 | 139 | 55 | 6 | 200 | 269 | 22 | 491 | 28.3% | 40.7% | 54.8% |
| 2026-08-09 | 139 | 69 | 18 | 226 | 197 | 21 | 444 | 31.3% | 50.9% | 44.4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 148 | 75 | 13 | 236 | 263 | 18 | 517 | 28.6% | 45.6% | 50.9% |
| 2026-08-11 | 276 | 109 | 29 | 414 | 389 | 17 | 820 | 33.7% | 50.5% | 47.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | 725 | 234 | 56 | 1015 | 499 | 23 | 1537 | 47.2% | 66.0% | 32.5% |
| 2026-08-13 | 800 | 267 | 68 | 1135 | 621 | 24 | 1780 | 44.9% | 63.8% | 34.9% |
| 2026-08-14 | 361 | 158 | 34 | 553 | 423 | 23 | 999 | 36.1% | 55.4% | 42.3% |
| 2026-08-15 | 142 | 59 | 9 | 210 | 276 | 10 | 496 | 28.6% | 42.3% | 55.6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 50 | 28 | 2 | 80 | 168 | 10 | 258 | 19.4% | 31.0% | 65.1% |
| 2026-08-17 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 34 | 98 | 7 | 139 | 14.4% | 24.5% | 70.5% |
| TOTAL | 2880 | 1097 | 242 | 4219 | 3383 | 191 | 7793 | 37.0% | 54.1% | 43.4% |
* Near Rad — events within 5° of the Perseid geocentric radiant (RA 46.7°, Dec +57.7°) that were not tagged Perseid by the automated classifier. Perseids inside the gate are already counted under PER. These are near-radiant sporadics likely to reclassify once QA is applied.
* Near Vel — events on the Perseid radiant with an initial velocity within 53–68 km/s (Perseid V-init ≈ 59–61 km/s) that fell just outside the automated velocity gate.
PER % is the as-tagged Perseid fraction at standard automated association criteria. Adj. % adds the near-radiant and near-velocity events that improved calibration, corrected station coordinates, and tighter reductions are expected to move into the Perseid class — read it as our realistic post-QA ceiling, not the current count. SPO % is sporadics as a share of all (clean) solved events.
Notes on the data
These results come from a fully automated, pre-review pipeline. A number of station fixes and solver optimizations were applied in the run-up to the Perseids, and QA is ongoing. Most of the data-quality issues we see trace back to a handful of stations, which we are addressing remotely with added QA checks and gates. The larger effort — a full re-reduction and calibration-validation pass — is in progress and is expected to tighten the final numbers, moving a portion of the near-radiant and near-velocity events into the Perseid column.
The nightly Perseid fraction traces a clean activity curve, rising into the August 12–13 peak and falling off on either side — the expected Perseid profile. As an automated, self-funded amateur network, achieving this level of agreement on preliminary results is a strong outcome, with clear headroom as the QA process completes.
Consider this an early release — more to come as the analysis firms up.